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DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Thursday, July 27, 2017 10:58AM CDT
By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter

OMAHA (DTN) -- For the third week in a row, average retail fertilizer prices continued to decrease the third week of July 2017. Once again, all eight of the major fertilizers had lower prices compared to a month earlier.

Only three fertilizers had significant price drops. With the sidedressing season pretty much completed, anhydrous showed a large drop in prices, down 14% compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $425 per ton the third week of July 2017.

Also considerably lower were urea, which was 7% lower compared to the previous month, and UAN28, which was 6% less expensive. Urea had an average price of $309/ton and UAN28 $229/ton.

The remaining five fertilizers had lower prices compared to last month, but none of the price drops were significant. DAP had an average price of $435/ton, MAP $464/ton, potash $339/ton, 10-34-0 $425/ton and UAN32 $265/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.34/lb.N, anhydrous $0.26/lb.N, UAN28 $0.41/lb.N and UAN32 $0.41/lb.N.

With retail fertilizer prices falling in recent weeks, it's logical to think farmers may begin to consider locking in some fertilizer needs for the 2018 growing season. While it's perhaps still too early for some, others who want to get a jump on knowing input prices for the next growing season may be willing to pre-purchase some fertilizer.

Josh Kayser, who farms near Emery, South Dakota, said he hasn't locked in any fertilizer yet for 2018. He said his normal practice on his southeastern South Dakota operation is to wait until closer to harvest to pre-order some phosphorus (P) and potash (K).

"My guess is with (fertilizer) prices dropping, guys are holding off," Kayser told DTN.

The sagging grain market is another factor why farmers may not be very excited to lock in fertilizer prices. A rally in either the corn market or retail fertilizer market might cause some farmers to lock in some nutrients, he said.

"If we had a reason to believe a rally was coming (in the fertilizer market), I would lock a large chuck of our P and K for fall spread," he said. "And if the price was right, probably up to 50% of spring nitrogen."

Prices of all retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. Five of the eight major fertilizers are double digits lower.

Both 10-34-0 and anhydrous are now 22% lower from a year ago while both UAN32 and urea are now 13% lower and UAN28 is 12% less expensive. Both DAP and MAP are 6% lower while potash is 5% lower.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
July 18-22 2016 464 493 357 357
Aug 15-19 2016 452 471 333 337
Sept 12-16 2016 444 458 320 324
Oct 10-14 2016 438 452 313 316
Nov 7-11 2016 429 449 314 323
Dec 5-9 2016 434 443 318 333
Jan 2-6 2017 431 442 322 339
Jan 30-Feb 3 2017 430 448 329 353
Feb 27-Mar 03 2017 436 458 335 361
Mar 27-31 2017 438 465 338 356
Apr 17-21 2017 438 466 339 352
May 22-26 2017 436 471 340 343
Jun 19-23 2017 436 470 340 333
Jul 17-21 2017 435 464 339 309
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
July 18-22 2016 546 546 260 304
Aug 15-19 2016 513 516 238 285
Sept 12-16 2016 474 496 233 272
Oct 10-14 2016 454 475 224 264
Nov 7-11 2016 447 468 217 256
Dec 5-9 2016 445 463 219 257
Jan 2-6 2017 436 465 218 255
Jan 30-Feb 3 2017 439 482 236 270
Feb 27-Mar 03 2017 440 502 246 279
Mar 27-31 2017 441 508 248 279
Apr 17-21 2017 437 509 247 280
May 22-26 2017 436 503 249 280
Jun 19-23 2017 435 497 243 273
Jul 17-21 2017 425 425 229 265

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/CZ)


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