OMAHA (DTN) -- Bucking a trend in recent years, farmers will see a boost in their crop insurance protection due to a higher harvest price, especially when it comes to soybeans.

Despite a downward trend in soybean and corn prices throughout October, the harvest price closed Friday for soybeans at an average of $12.63 a bushel, up from $11.09 for the spring crop insurance price. Corn closed October with an average of $4.75 a bushel, up from $4.62 for the spring price guarantee.

Crop insurance harvest prices are set based on a rolling average throughout October of the closing price for the November soybean contract and the December corn contract.

Even with the October downturn, prices for both crops have strengthened since early August, a situation that didn't exist last year.

On Oct. 30, 2025, President Donald Trump reached a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting in South Korea for China to buy U.S. soybeans again. The deal included China buying 25 million metric tons (mmt) for the 2026-27 crop. China's soybean purchases for the new crop right now are pegged at 15 mmt, according to USDA.

Revenue protection policies use the higher of the projected price or the harvest price to calculate revenue guarantees unless the farmer opted to exclude the harvest price as a way to lower premiums. Revenue guarantees are determined by multiplying the higher of the projected or harvest price by the farm's actual production history (APH) yield and the chosen coverage level, which typically ranges from 75% to 85% across the Corn Belt.

Under Revenue Protection policies, an indemnity generally requires actual revenue to fall below that higher guarantee. An indemnity could trigger from a yield loss depending on the coverage level and the difference between projected and harvest prices.

Based on Risk Management Agency (RMA) data, the crop insurance price guarantees apply to roughly 88.7 million acres of corn and 80.4 million acres of soybeans. Both totals are lower than USDA's planted acres because some farmers choose not to participate in the federal crop insurance program.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Grain markets ticked downward throughout October, with December corn and November and January soybean futures posting only a handful of positive trading sessions during the month.

DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said the sell-off has been driven partly by USDA reports in late September and early October that added roughly 400 million bushels (mb) to projected U.S. corn supplies. Wheat futures also have experienced an extended decline, adding pressure to corn and soybeans.

Despite the downturn, October's average futures prices used to establish crop insurance harvest guarantees are expected to finish above the February averages used to set spring guarantees for both corn and soybeans.

Montgomery said that has happened only three times for corn and twice for soybeans over the previous nine years.

"I guess what it really means for producers is that any sort of indemnity payment would have to come from a yield loss this year with the higher price," Montgomery said.

Looking ahead, Montgomery said grain markets appear technically oversold, but he remains cautiously optimistic about a potential post-harvest recovery, particularly for soybeans if export demand remains strong.

"I can't fully throw in the towel on the market for a decent post-harvest run," Montgomery said.

Also see, "AI-Powered Crop Insurer Aims to Lower Corn, Soybean Farmers' Premiums," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

HISTORICAL LOOK AT PRICE GUARANTEES

This year marks the first year since 2022 that corn prices at harvest have come in above the spring guarantee. The 2020, 2021 and 2022 harvest prices for corn each beat out the spring guarantee. In 2021, the harvest price for corn reached $6.86 a bushel, which was the highest level since 2012.

Soybean harvest prices have not beat out the spring price since 2021 when the November futures ended at $12.30 a bushel. The harvest price triggered for soybeans in 2020 as well.

Prior to 2020, the harvest price had not triggered for corn since 2012 or soybeans since 2016, according to an analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Drought in 2012 led to the highest fall harvest price guarantees on record with $7.50 a bushel for corn and $15.39 a bushel for soybeans.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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