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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/23 11:06

   Grains Trending Higher at Midday

   Spring wheat and soybeans lead at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow 25 higher. The dollar index is 
10 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with 
crude up $0.10. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are firmer with gold 
up $15.


   Corn is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade again challenging the upper 
end of the recent range with support from harvest delaying rains, and stronger 
soybean action. Rains will slow early harvest in many areas in the short term, 
but temps should remain warm. Corn basis is expected to continue to see 
pressure as harvest gets going. Ethanol futures are slightly lower with 
improved margins holding on, with unleaded and ethanol both slightly higher 
this morning. The weekly export inspections were disappointing at 233,993 
metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions with maturity 
catching up some with the recent heat. On the December contract support is at 
the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger Band above trade at 3.77. 


   Soybeans are 11 to 13 cents higher at midday with support from weather and 
trade optimism to regain the late week losses with talk of China securing 10 
more cargos for December, but we remain below the recent highs. Meal is $2.50 
to $3.50 higher, and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. Crush margins remain good, 
but the bull argument needs a positive export story besides sporadic sales to 
China. Economically U.S. export competitiveness is improving but the real has 
moved back to the lower end of the range. Bean basis remains flat in the 
interior. South America will be watched for a turn to wetter near term weather 
to get planting underway. For the week, export inspections were OK at 922,550 
metric tons. Weekly crop progress will likely show steady conditions, with 
maturity gaining a little. On the November chart are back above the moving 
averages clustered in the $8.87 range, with the upper Bollinger Band remaining 
resistance at $9.06.


   Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to 14 cents higher with spring wheat leading on 
late harvest problems and quality concerns. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is 
74 cents, down 3 cents to start the week. The corn/HRW spread is hanging around 
the 35-40 cent area. So Kansas City wheat is competitive on the world market 
but we need to see the business and more buyers to move the board out away from 
our lows with feed competitiveness still in place for the southern plains. 
Winter wheat planting should expand more this week, but the market is not 
providing incentives to plant. Weekly crop progress should show planting 
remaining below the average pace, and spring wheat harvest nearly complete. 
Weekly export inspections were inline at 476,173 metric tons. The December 
Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $4.00 1/2, with resistance at the 
upper Bollinger Band at 4.15, which we are just below.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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